2014年之后的九大技术发展趋势

[ITCnzz]

【2014年之后的九大技术发展趋势】1. 云计算成为新的硬件形式。　2. 互动系统正当其时。3. 大数据一马当先。4. 云集成脱颖而出。5. 身份验证代表着新的安全机制。6. 内存成为新的存储机制。7. 通向未来的道路由JavaScript铺就。8. 企业开发人员转向PaaS。9. 开发人员继续主宰一切

[Highfishfish]

身份验证代表着新的安全机制，数据隐私很重要。支持楼主！！

[水冰老师]

2014年之后 IT的九大发展趋势 谁说企业IT枯燥无味?卓越的思维与大胆的技术新风向正以前所未有的主动性改变一切，现在 是时候考虑由此引发的长远影响了。 　　精彩的2013年尚未结束，但我已经迫不及待要把自己对于这么多新兴发展趋势的感受与 大家分享。为此，我准备了这样一份对未来一年的前进展望。我原本以为自己会把滔滔不绝的 预测结论作为主要内容，但在今年这样一个历史性时刻，众多趋势已经开始酝酿并初步结出果 实——我敢肯定，其中大部分都将在未来的十二个月中继续保持这一良好势头。 　　下面就是我总结出和九大技术发展趋势，如果各位朋友拥有自己的主张、不妨在评论栏中 与大家分享。 　　1. 云计算成为新的硬件形式。Pivotal公司CEO Paul Maritz显然对这一结论深表赞同。他的 论点是：各大行业都已经开始在新型计算平台的推动向走向变革，从PC到客户-服务器再到互 联网皆是如此。在服务器、存储以及网络领域，设备的运作方式已经经过融合而形成类似于一 整套大型“机器”的体系，在这里应用程序能够拥有极致可扩展性、基础设施必须与虚拟化相结 合并拥有中央控制特性——而这，就是我们所说的“软件定义”概念。最终，这一趋势将超越 SDN(即软件定义网络)的单方面诉求，开始将数据中心内的每一套系统涵盖进来——就连空调 系统也不例外。由公共云供应商提出的高级软件控制规划将继续逐步进入企业环境。 　　2. 互动系统正当其时。我们要如此夸张的规模化云扩展能力干嘛?不是为了ERP这类老式 企业“记录系统”，因为在这类系统中数据模型很少改变，我们也大概了解会有多少客户对其加 以运用。云计算巨大力量的主要服务对象在于“互动系统”：面向客户的Web及移动应用，它们 的普及将给整个市场带来不容忽视的震动效果。 　　对客户互动效果进行优化已经成为目前最热门的技术领域，由此产生的推动力也成为弹性 基础设施、新型数据库技术以及收集并分析大数据(主要是Web点击流及其它用户数据)的发展 源头。利用Hadoop类应用实现的大数据分析机制很可能成为过去十年以来最具代表性及划时 代意义的单项企业技术进步。紧随其后的则是NoSQL数据库(例如MongoDB、Cassandra以及 Couchbase)，其向外扩展能力几近疯狂、采用的数据模型也在不断增加。 　　3. 大数据一马当先。大数据分析为我们带来诸多极具吸引力的承诺，但在短期之内具体大 数据解决方案数量太多、需要解决的问题则相对较少。从长远角度看，大数据的潜力绝不仅限 于对电子商务体系进行优化，而必定会融入各类垂直行业——从制造业到运输业再到电网体系 ，可谓无所不包。 　　但要让垂直领域享受大数据带来的收益，首先需要实现工业互联网普及(也就是我们常说 的‘物联网’)。我们不妨想象这样的情景：无数联网传感器提供大量远程测量数据，从而改进产 品设计、准确预测故障。通用电气与IBM在这一领域取得了早期领导地位，但我们目前尚处于 起步阶段。从现在开始，未来多年内工业互联网将以燎原之势迅速铺开，到那时大数据将真正 变得非常非常庞大，而对大数据分析方案的渴求也将前所未有地强烈。与此同时，如果在 2014年中某些技术泡沫最终破灭，那么大数据也将首当其冲。 　　4. 云集成脱颖而出。大数据由于自身规模所限而缺乏迁移便利性，因此现在越来越多的数 据被直接保存在云端以提供给云分析机制进行处理。在一般情况下，云方案，尤其是亲自打理 数据存储工作的SaaS应用，有可能让企业用户重蹈旧日那种孤立隔离的覆辙。换句话说，各产 品之间的实际差异非常小，但客户记录却散落在彼此隔离的不同数据存储体系当中(连同那些 本应加以共享的宝贵处理流程)。 　　要解决这一难题，摆在面前的有两个答案：云集成以及更多、更好的API。云集成方案比 比皆是，其中较为知名的有Cordys、戴尔Boomi、IBM Cast Iron、Informatica、Layer 7、 MuleSoft、SnapLogic以及WSO2等。另外，API显然也拥有自己的联盟——例如由Apigee提供 的新型API解决方案，这套方案允许企业公布并维护自己的公共API。 　　5. 身份验证代表着新的安全机制。尽管这种说法有些夸张，但事实上身份验证如今已经成 为内部及SaaS应用当中不可或缺的重要组成部分。管理谁曾经访问过什么内容——并在员工离 开公司之前取回这些内容——正变得越来越重要、同时也越来越复杂。微软、Okta、 Salesforce以及其它多家厂商已经开始推出解决方案。没有云验证管理的辅助，企业根本无法 安全高效地实施公共云方案。 　　6. 内存成为新的存储机制。内存容量的扩大体现在两个方面。在软件方面，每一家关系类 数据库供应商都在为自己的产品添加内存内功能，这主要是为了满足分析任务的需要并显著降 低大型处理工作所消耗的时间。而在硬件方面，以PernixData为代表的各类方案开始在服务器 当中利用闪存打造容量更大的分布式缓存，从而大大降低必须指向SAN的读取与写入操作的比 例。 　　7. 通向未来的道路由JavaScript铺就。由于各类移动设备纷至沓来(包括新型电视及汽车等) ，我们正面临着一个全新时代——在这里客户端硬件正呈现出前所未有的多样性。没人愿意为 每一种平台维护一套独立的原生客户端应用。如果大家希望能让自己的维护清单上只有一套代 码库，那么应用就必须运行在浏览器之上——换言之，我们的产品必须属于JavaScript/HTML5 应用。 　　这就难怪几乎每周都会有新的JavaScript框架出现，Famo.us等网站也会不断推送消息、向 我们传达JavaScript的最新创造性使用方式。另外，跨平台移动开发环境(例如PhoneGap)也允 许大家轻松将JavaScript应用转化为原生应用。 　　8. 企业开发人员转向PaaS。到目前为止，PaaS的主要客户群体为商业软件开发商以及专业 服务厂商。不过随着越来越多的企业推出自家Web及移动应用程序，内部开发人员也将逐步发 现PaaS方案所带来的便利——目前市场上的主要选项包括微软Azure、Pivotal Cloud Foundry 、红帽OpenShift以及SalesForce Heroku。它们全都提供灵活的编码机制、测试环境以及在云 中部署应用程序的能力。 　　IBM今年对Cloud Foundry的全力推动可算一大重要里程碑——此举可能让不少企业用户 打消疑虑、放心将自己的代码安置在其它厂商的平台之上。此外，IDC公司也做出预测，称针 对特定行业的PaaS产品(包括针对特定垂直行业的预置服务)将迎来崛起。 　　9. 开发人员继续主宰一切。如果要在以上各项预测当中找到一条共同线索，那就是Marc Andreessen在两年前提出的论断再次得到验证——软件正吞噬世界。由于存在这么多需要为之 编写代码的平台——如今甚至数据中心基础设施本身也开始具有可编程化特性——现有开发人 员数量肯定无法满足如此庞大的需求。招聘市场上给出的薪酬与职位越来越高——至少对那些 具备理想技能组合的求职者是如此。我们不禁要问：如何才能更好、更高效地培养出拥有这些 技能的专业人才? 　　这九大趋势代表着短时间内即将出现的巨大变革。至少我们可以说这些趋势将给IT行业带 来有趣的影响。总结起来，如果软件开始定义基础设施，那么硬件就将变得更加商品化——其 中包括网络设备。如果应用程序的发展方向日趋明朗，即我们终将编写出能够运行在任何客户 端设备上的应用，那么针对运行平台的选择将不再重要。 　　与此同时，软件的交付方式也发生了永久性改变。IBM、甲骨文、SAP以及其它常常植根 于企业用户环境内的传统供应商可以继续保持自己的竞争优势，但除此之外还有什么令人兴奋 的新内容?主要备选答案可能在于开源、SaaS或者成本低廉的移动应用。在我看来，虽然很多 新兴企业被收购，但大部分从业厂商可能需要重新调整其收益预期。 　　对于云计算及移动这两大新兴领域，企业IT部门必须找到新的处理方式——因为在这里他 们不再拥有至高无上的掌控权。在多数企业中，管理者们开始意识到为了保持自身在市场中的 竞争力，他们需要为客户部署各类Web及移动应用并观察其实际效果。IT部门能否及时获得相 关技能以满足由上述趋势带来的需求?或者说企业管理层是否有可能转而向SaaS方案、敏捷开 发厂商或者其它外部供应商寻求帮助，而将IT部门打入冷宫?答案仍未揭晓，我将拭目以待。 　　原文链接：http://www.infoworld.com/t/cloud-computing/9-trends-2014-and-beyond- 230099 （作者：核子可乐译责任编辑：王玉平）

[水冰老师]

=====================================原文如下======================= The year isn't over yet, but I've already reached my limit of trying to make sense of many new developments. So I'm ready to start the season of prognostication early. Originally, I figured I'd reel off some predictions about the coming year. But we're at one of those rare junctures when a bunch of trends have begun to crystallize -- and I'm pretty sure many of them will persist for more than 12 months. Here's my mixed bag of nine trends. Feel free to add your own. [ Stay on top of the cloud with the "Cloud Computing Deep Dive" special report. Download it today! | For more on the next-generation Web, read "The triumph of JavaScript" and "You're already living in the cloud." | For a quick, smart take on the news you'll be talking about, subscribe to InfoWorld TechBrief. ] 1. Cloud is the new hardware. Credit Pivotal CEO Paul Maritz with this one. The thesis: All big industry shifts have been driven by new computing platforms, from the PC to client-server to the Internet. For servers, storage, and networking equipment to behave like one big "machine," where applications can assume massive scalability, the entire infrastructure must be virtualized and centrally controllable -- that is, software-defined. Ultimately this trend goes beyond SDN to include every system in the data center, all the way to HVAC. Advanced software control schemes pioneered by public cloud providers will continue to trickle down to the enterprise. 2. Systems of engagement lead the way. So what do you need massive cloud scalability for? Not old-fashioned enterprise "systems of record," such as ERP, where the data model seldom changes and you know roughly how many people will use it. Where the cloud shines is in powering "systems of engagement": customer-facing Web and mobile applications whose usage may fluctuate by magnitudes. Optimizing that customer interaction has become the hottest area of technology, driving the development of elastic infrastructure, new database technologies, and the collection and analysis of big data (mainly Web clickstreams and other user data). Big data analysis using Hadoop-based applications may be the single biggest advancement in enterprise technology in the last decade. Not far behind are NoSQL databases such as MongoDB, Cassandra, and Couchbase, which scale out like crazy and enable on-the fly changes to data models. 3. Big data gets ahead of itself. Big data analytics hold enormous promise, but in the near term there are simply too many big data solutions searching for problems. In the long term, the potential for big data goes way beyond optimizing e-commerce to embrace all kinds of verticals, from manufacturing to transportation to the electrical grid. But those vertical areas require the industrial Internet (also known as the Internet of things) to come online, where connected sensors deliver huge quantities of telemetry to foster improvements in product design, accurate prediction of failure, and so on. GE and IBM are early leaders in this area, but we're just at the start. Years from now when the industrial Internet is in full swing, big data will be really, really big, and the thirst for big data analytics solutions will be unquenchable. Meanwhile, if any bubbles burst in 2014, big data will go first. 4. Cloud integration moves to the fore. Big data has a tendency to stay where it is, with a growing number of data stores in the cloud feeding cloud-based analytics. Cloud adoption in general, particularly SaaS applications with data stores of their own, runs the risk of replaying the bad old days of the siloed organization where duplicate yet slightly different records about the same products and customers were scattered in isolated data stores (along with valuable processes that should have been shared). The answer is twofold: cloud integration and more, better APIs. Cloud integration players abound, including Cordys, Dell Boomi, IBM Cast Iron, Informatica, Layer 7, MuleSoft, SnapLogic, and WSO2. Plus, APIs apparently have their own conference now -- along with new API solutions such as those offered by Apigee, which enable enterprises to publish and maintain their own public APIs. 5. Identity is the new security. A wild exaggeration, but the fact is that identity must now stretch to fit both on-premises and SaaS applications. Managing who has access to what -- and deprovisioning employees when they leave the company -- is becoming both more essential and more complicated. Microsoft, Okta, Salesforce, and others are rolling out solutions. Without cloud identity management, enterprises can't adopt public cloud solutions safely and effectively. 6. Memory is the new storage. Big memory is exploding on two fronts. On the software side, every relational database vendor is adding in-memory capabilities, primarily for analytics, and dramatically reducing the time required for big processing jobs. On the hardware side, solutions from the likes of PernixData assemble a large, distributed cache using flash memory in servers, thus vastly reducing the percentage of reads and writes that must travel all the way to the SAN. 7. The future is powered by JavaScript. Thanks to an endless variety of mobile devices (plus new TVs, cars, and so on), we've never seen anything like today's diversity of client hardware. No one likes maintaining a separate, native client app for each platform. If you dream of maintaining a single code base, your app must run in a browser -- in other words, it must be a JavaScript/HTML5 app. Small wonder a new JavaScript framework seems to pop up every week, with such wildly inventive plays as Famo.us pushing the envelope of what JavaScript can do. Plus, cross- platform mobile development environments such as PhoneGap allow easy conversion of JavaScript apps to native apps. 8. Enterprise developers turn toward to PaaS. So far, the main customers of PaaS have been commercial software developers and professional services organizations. But as more enterprises debut their own fancy Web and mobile apps, enterprise developers will see the benefits of such PaaS plays as Microsoft Azure, Pivotal Cloud Foundry, Red Hat OpenShift, or SalesForce Heroku. All of which offer the tools and services needed for agile coding, testing, and deployment of applications in the cloud. IBM's full-throated endorsement of Cloud Foundry this year was an important milestone -- one that may make some enterprises less hesitant to put their code on someone else's platform. In addition, IDC has predicted the rise of industry-specific PaaS offerings that include pre-built services specific to particular verticals. 9. Developers continue to rule. If there's one common thread through all of these predictions, it's Marc Andreessen's two-year-old declaration that software is eating the world. With so many different platforms to write for -- and with even data center infrastructure becoming programmable -- there simply aren't enough developers to write all that code. With insatiable demand comes high salaries and status, at least for those with the right combination of skills. Can we figure out better, more efficient ways to train people in those skills, please? These nine trends represent enormous change in a short period of time. The implications for the IT industry are interesting, to say the least. For one thing, if software defines infrastructure, then hardware becomes even more commoditized, including networking equipment. And if the prospect of applications finally seems within reach where you can write once and run on any client device, then which client device you choose becomes less important. Meanwhile, the way software is delivered has changed forever. IBM, Oracle, SAP, and other traditional vendors are so deeply embedded in organizations they can continue to extract huge sums from customers that must maintain those wares. But the exciting new stuff? It's mainly open source or SaaS or cheap mobile apps. It seems to me that the industry may need to recalibrate its revenue expectations, even if many of the startups get acquired. How enterprise IT will deal with a cloud and mobile world where it no longer has a monopoly over business technology remains an open question. In many organizations, there's a growing realization that to stay competitive, you need to deploy all kinds Web and mobile applications for customers and see what sticks. Can IT acquire the skills and technologies to make that happen? Or will business management be forced to turn to SaaS plays, hotshot agile dev firms, or other outside providers -- and leave IT to just keep the lights on? I can't wait to find out. This article, "9 trends for 2014 and beyond," originally appeared at InfoWorld.com. Read more of Eric Knorr's Modernizing IT blog. And for the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld on Twitter. Tags: Cloud computing, Application Development, IaaS, NoSQL, PaaS, SaaS, SDN, Identity Management, Mobile Technology, Storage

[刘-刚]

开发人员主宰一切？未必！主宰一切的不会是单一的某个群体，我想应该是大众的需求，以及技术的进步等