Bayesian Methods, A General Introduction下载

weixin_39820835 2019-06-25 10:00:20
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Bayesian methods are increasingly becoming attractive to researchers in many fields. Econometrics, however, is a field in which Bayesian methods have had relatively less influence. A key reason for this absence is the lack of a suitable advanced undergraduate or graduate level textbook. Existing Bayesian books are either out-dated, and hence do not cover the computational advances that have revolutionized the field of Bayesian econometrics since the late 1980s, or do not provide the broad coverage necessary for the student interested in empirical work applying Bayesian methods. For instance, Arnold Zellner’s seminal Bayesian econometrics book (Zellner, 1971) was published in 1971. Dale Poirier’s influential book (Poirier, 1995) focuses on the methodology and statistical theory underlying Bayesian and frequentist methods, but does not discuss models used by applied economists beyond regression. Other important Bayesian books, such as Bauwens, Lubrano and Richard (1999), deal only with particular areas of econometrics (e.g. time series models). In writing this book, my aim has been to fill the gap in the existing set of Bayesian textbooks, and create a Bayesian counterpart to the many popular non-Bayesian econometric textbooks now available (e.g. Greene, 1995). That is, my aim has been to write a book that covers a wide range of models and prepares the student to undertake applied work using Bayesian methods. This book is intended to be accessible to students with no prior training in econometrics, and only a single course in mathematics (e.g. basic calculus). Students will find a previous undergraduate course in probability and statistics useful; however Appendix B offers a brief introduction to these topics for those without the prerequisite background. Throughout the book, I have tried to keep the level of mathematical sophistication reasonably low. In contrast to other Bayesian and comparable frequentist textbooks, I have included more computer-related material. Modern Bayesian econometrics relies heavily on the computer, and developing some basic programming skills is essential for the applied Bayesian. The required level of computer programming skills is not that high, but I expect that this aspect of Bayesian econometrics might be most unfamiliar to the student brought up in the world of spreadsheets and click-and-press computer packages. Accordingly, in addition to discussing computation in detail in the book itself, the website associated with the book contains MATLAB programs for performing Bayesian analysis in a wide variety of models. In general, the focus of the book is on application rather than theory. Hence, I expect that the applied economist interested in using Bayesian methods will find it more useful than the theoretical econometrician.
The dramatic growth in practical applications for machine learning over the last ten years has been accompanied by many important developments in the underlying algorithms and techniques. For example, Bayesian methods have grown from a specialist niche to become mainstream, while graphical models have emerged as a general framework for describing and applying probabilistic techniques. The practical applicability of Bayesian methods has been greatly enhanced by the development of a range of approximate inference algorithms such as variational Bayes and expectation propagation, while new models based on kernels have had a significant impact on both algorithms and applications.   This completely new textbook reflects these recent developments while providing a comprehensive introduction to the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. It is aimed at advanced undergraduates or first-year PhD students, as well as researchers and practitioners. No previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning concepts is assumed. Familiarity with multivariate calculus and basic linear algebra is required, and some experience in the use of probabilities would be helpful though not essential as the book includes a self-contained introduction to basic probability theory.   The book is suitable for courses on machine learning, statistics, computer science, signal processing, computer vision, data mining, and bioinformatics. Extensive support is provided for course instructors, including more than 400 exercises, graded according to difficulty. Example solutions for a subset of the exercises are available from the book web site, while solutions for the remainder can be obtained by instructors from the publisher. The book is supported by a great deal of additional material, and the reader is encouraged to visit the book web site for the latest information.  

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